Monday, September 23, 2024

Stock Market Soars: Nifty Crosses 25,900, Sensex Rises by 384 Points to Hit Record Highs

The stock market continued its upward momentum for the third consecutive session on September 23, 2024, reaching fresh all-time highs. The Nifty 50 crossed the 25,900 mark, closing at 25,939.05 with a gain of 148.10 points (+0.57%), while the BSE Sensex surged by 384.30 points (+0.45%) to end the day at a record 84,928.61. This rally was driven by widespread buying across sectors, except for Information Technology, which saw a minor dip.

Market Overview: The day began with a positive opening and traded in a narrow range during the first half, before picking up momentum in the second half, pushing both the Sensex and Nifty to fresh intraday highs of 84,980.53 and 25,956, respectively.

Sector Performance: The market saw broad-based participation, with sectors like PSU banks, real estate, auto, energy, FMCG, metal, and pharma contributing to the rise. The PSU Bank index emerged as the top performer, rallying over 3%, followed by the Realty index, which gained more than 2%. Other sectors like auto, energy, FMCG, metal, pharma, and media posted gains of 0.5%-1%.

However, the Information Technology (IT) sector lagged behind, shedding 0.5%, with Tech Mahindra and other major IT players witnessing some losses.

Top Gainers and Losers: Among the Nifty 50 stocks, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) led the gains, rising by 3.35% to close at ₹3,049.80. Other top performers included ONGC, Bajaj Auto, SBI Life Insurance, and Hero MotoCorp. On the flip side, Eicher Motors was the biggest loser, dropping 1.68% to ₹4,879.55, followed by Divis Labs, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, and IndusInd Bank, which also saw marginal declines.

Midcap and Smallcap Performance: The broader markets also witnessed strong interest from investors. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices gained 0.7% each, with nearly 350 stocks hitting their 52-week highs. Notable companies included Aditya Birla Fashion, Apollo Hospitals, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Hero MotoCorp, Sun Pharma, and Kotak Mahindra Bank.

Technical Outlook: Market analysts observed that while the Nifty is steadily moving towards the 26,000 mark, a psychological resistance zone, the index may be overbought in the short term. According to technical analysts, a potential correction might occur, with the 25,800-25,850 zone acting as a strong support level. Bank Nifty also showed strength, closing at 54,105.80 and heading towards 55,000, with the support zone now placed between 53,350 and 53,500.

Market Sentiment: Analysts are optimistic about the continuation of the bullish trend but have advised caution due to signs of an overheated market in the short run. Investors are encouraged to adopt a trailing stop-loss strategy to safeguard profits in case of pullbacks. Despite the short-term risk of profit-taking, the broader sentiment remains positive, especially for sectors like banking and realty, which have been top performers.

Conclusion: The record-breaking performance of the markets on September 23 signals strong investor confidence across sectors. However, with key resistance levels approaching, some caution is warranted as analysts predict a potential consolidation or profit-booking phase in the near future. Nonetheless, the market outlook remains positive, with broader market participation and bullish momentum across most sectors.

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Saturday, September 21, 2024

FIIs Surge as Net Buyers, DIIs Turn Sellers in Major Market Shift

On September 20, 2024, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) made a notable move by becoming net buyers, purchasing ₹14,064 crore worth of shares. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) offloaded ₹4,427.08 crore in equities. This shift occurred after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, boosting global markets, including India.

During the trading session, DIIs bought equities valued at ₹16,987.42 crore but sold ₹21,414.50 crore worth of shares. Meanwhile, FIIs purchased ₹59,452.33 crore in shares while offloading ₹45,388.28 crore in equities, leading to a significant net purchase.

The Indian stock market experienced a sharp rally, with the Sensex closing 1,359.51 points higher, a 1.63% rise to 84,544.31. Similarly, the Nifty index climbed 375.2 points or 1.48%, ending the day at 25,579. All sectoral indices finished in positive territory.

Leading the gains on the Nifty were M&M, ICICI Bank, JSW Steel, Bharti Airtel, and L&T. On the other hand, Grasim Industries, SBI, IndusInd Bank, TCS, and Bajaj Finance were the top losers of the day.

According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the markets are gradually climbing, and this positive momentum is expected to continue. Strong FII inflows, healthy domestic macroeconomic conditions, and easing concerns about the U.S. economy are likely to sustain the market's rise.

So far in 2024, FIIs have net sold shares worth ₹1.2 lakh crore, while DIIs have been net buyers, accumulating ₹3.28 lakh crore in equities. Despite FIIs being net sellers earlier in the year, their renewed buying in September has contributed to the market's current strength.

 

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Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Markets Await Powell's Decision: Will He Follow Greenspan's Playbook to Avoid Recession?

With bonds and stocks rallying ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve meeting, traders are drawing parallels to the 1995 era when Alan Greenspan successfully navigated a soft landing for the U.S. economy. The focus now is on whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell will opt for a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut, and how it will impact the economy.

Historical data shows that during past Fed easing cycles, including the six analyzed since 1989, the S&P 500 Index, Treasuries, and gold typically rise when the Fed begins to lower rates. Traders are looking back at 1995 for guidance, a year when the Fed managed to reduce rates without triggering an economic downturn.

Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, believes the U.S. economy is on track to dodge a recession with the Fed's anticipated policy shift. "Once the Fed starts cutting rates, there will be a positive psychological effect that will support the market," she said.

The S&P 500 Index has historically gained an average of 13% in the six months following the first rate cut, except during the recessionary years of 2001 and 2007. Additionally, short-term Treasuries have usually outperformed long-term notes during these cycles, leading to a steeper yield curve. Gold has also delivered returns in four of the past six easing cycles, while the performance of the dollar and oil has been mixed.

As the Fed prepares to implement rate cuts, uncertainty looms with the upcoming presidential election. Candidates have starkly different economic policies, which could significantly affect global markets based on election outcomes and Congressional votes.

Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation at Fidelity International, has downgraded his rating of U.S. equities to neutral from overweight due to election risks. "The most likely scenario is a soft landing, but elections could introduce unique challenges," he noted.

In the 1995 easing cycle, Greenspan and the Fed managed to lower rates from 6% to 5.25% within six months, cooling the economy without causing a downturn. This time, with the Fed's target range at 5.25% to 5.5% for 14 months, bond traders are pricing in over 2 percentage points of easing over the next year. The S&P 500 is nearing an all-time high, and credit spreads are at historical lows.

Investor optimism for a soft landing is supported by strong corporate and household balance sheets, with record-high corporate profits and household wealth. "Inflation is no longer the primary concern; it's high interest rates," said Yung-Yu Ma, Chief Investment Officer at BMO Wealth Management. "By cutting rates now, the Fed may address this issue and prevent a downturn."

Bloomberg strategists suggest that Treasury bonds typically rally at the onset of a Fed easing cycle, particularly when it coincides with a weakening economy. However, in a soft landing scenario, bond performance may lag behind stocks.

Recent data shows a rotation into utilities and real estate sectors, which historically benefit from rate cuts if economic growth remains robust.


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The views and investment tips expressed by experts on here are their own and not those of the website or its management. We strongly advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. We are not responsible for any losses.

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